Priced In

Prediction-market movers and the news moving them, ranked.

Priced-in gap63

Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?

Polymarket · politics · closes Oct 30

↳ “LeBron James joining Philadelphia 76ers for record-extending 24th NBA season” — cnbc.com · 40m ago (0.92)

0%−0.2%

gap 0.24Vol 1.3M

Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?

Polymarket · sports · closes Oct 30

↳ “LeBron James joining Philadelphia 76ers for record-extending 24th NBA season” — cnbc.com · 40m ago (0.92)

0%0.0%

gap 0.24Vol 756K

Will LeBron James play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?

Polymarket · politics · closes Oct 31

↳ “LeBron James joining Philadelphia 76ers for record-extending 24th NBA season” — cnbc.com · 40m ago (0.95)

0%0.0%

gap 0.24Vol 678K

Will LeBron James play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?

Polymarket · politics · closes Oct 30

↳ “LeBron James joining Philadelphia 76ers for record-extending 24th NBA season” — cnbc.com · 40m ago (0.92)

0%0.0%

gap 0.24Vol 702K

Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?

Polymarket · sports · closes Oct 31

↳ “LeBron James joining Philadelphia 76ers for record-extending 24th NBA season” — cnbc.com · 40m ago (0.90)

0%+0.2%

gap 0.24Vol 1.6M

Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?

Polymarket · sports · closes Oct 30

↳ “LeBron James joining Philadelphia 76ers for record-extending 24th NBA season” — cnbc.com · 40m ago (0.92)

1%−0.2%

gap 0.24Vol 1.3M

Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?

Polymarket · sports · closes Oct 30

↳ “LeBron James joining Philadelphia 76ers for record-extending 24th NBA season” — cnbc.com · 40m ago (0.92)

4%+2.4%

gap 0.20Vol 1.6M

Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Polymarket · sports · closes Jun 30

↳ “LeBron James Heads to Philadelphia 76ers” — variety.com · 1h ago (0.98)
↳ “LeBron James Signs With Philadelphia 76ers As Last Decision : I Am So Excited To Energize A New Fan Base” — deadline.com · 40m ago (0.78)

7%0.0%

gap 0.19Vol 426K

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jan 1

↳ “Bitcoin settles near $65,000 as oil's march toward $100 fails to spook the market” — coindesk.com · 6h ago (0.82)
↳ “Bitcoin holds near $65,000 as $800 billion AI selloff leaves crypto largely untouched” — coindesk.com · 12h ago (0.72)
↳ “Bitcoin hits a two-week high near $65,500 as the chip trade turns back into a tailwind” — coindesk.com · 4d ago (0.84)

46%0.0%

gap 0.18Vol 4.7M

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 24?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 24

↳ “Bitcoin settles near $65,000 as oil's march toward $100 fails to spook the market” — coindesk.com · 6h ago (0.99)
↳ “Bitcoin holds near $65,000 as $800 billion AI selloff leaves crypto largely untouched” — coindesk.com · 12h ago (0.99)

100%0.0%

gap 0.18Vol 164K

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Aug 1

↳ “Bitcoin settles near $65,000 as oil's march toward $100 fails to spook the market” — coindesk.com · 6h ago (0.98)
↳ “Bitcoin treasury companies sell up, repay debt, pivot to AI as share prices collapse” — coindesk.com · 6h ago (0.74)
↳ “Bitcoin holds near $65,000 as $800 billion AI selloff leaves crypto largely untouched” — coindesk.com · 12h ago (0.93)

0%−0.1%

gap 0.18Vol 1.9M

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Polymarket · politics · closes Jan 1

↳ “Galaxy cuts Clarity Act passage odds to 30%, says bill needs last-ditch effort” — theblock.co · 2h ago (0.99)
↳ “Clarity Act expected to miss its window before Congress' summer break, leadership says” — coindesk.com · 21h ago (0.98)
↳ “Goldman Sachs CEO backs Clarity Act despite banking industry's concerns over stablecoin rules” — coindesk.com · 1d ago (0.88)

38%0.0%

gap 0.16Vol 2.5M

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Aug 1

↳ “Bitcoin settles near $65,000 as oil's march toward $100 fails to spook the market” — coindesk.com · 6h ago (0.90)
↳ “Bitcoin holds near $65,000 as $800 billion AI selloff leaves crypto largely untouched” — coindesk.com · 12h ago (0.91)
↳ “Live markets: Bitcoin trades above $65,000 as Alphabet's bigger AI bill props up the chip trade” — coindesk.com · 1d ago (0.96)

16%−12.0%

gap 0.16Vol 1.4M

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

Polymarket · politics · closes Jul 31

↳ “Trump considering a ‘massive attack’ on Iran as Tehran labels UK ‘accomplice’ to America” — cnbc.com · 9h ago (0.78)
↳ “Tehran's Hormuz threat risks global fallout, Rubio warns as U.S. strikes Iran for 11th straight night” — cnbc.com · 3d ago (0.76)
↳ “U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire” — cnbc.com · 3d ago (0.82)

36%−4.0%

gap 0.15Vol 1.6M

Iran leadership change by July 31?

Polymarket · politics · closes Jul 30

↳ “Trump considering a ‘massive attack’ on Iran as Tehran labels UK ‘accomplice’ to America” — cnbc.com · 9h ago (0.79)

5%−0.2%

gap 0.15Vol 783K

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Polymarket · politics · closes Dec 30

↳ “Trump considering a ‘massive attack’ on Iran as Tehran labels UK ‘accomplice’ to America” — cnbc.com · 9h ago (0.88)
↳ “Pentagon lowers official Iran war death toll, omitting four killed this month” — cnbc.com · 11h ago (0.77)
↳ “Congress splits on war powers resolutions to force Trump to abandon Iran war” — cnbc.com · 1d ago (0.96)

31%+1.0%

gap 0.15Vol 46.5M

Iran full airspace closure by July 24?

Polymarket · politics · closes Jul 24

↳ “Trump considering a ‘massive attack’ on Iran as Tehran labels UK ‘accomplice’ to America” — cnbc.com · 9h ago (0.78)
↳ “SpaceX Pushes Starship Flight 13 to July 24 for Heat-Shield Imaging Conditions” — SpaceX · 2d ago (0.76)

10%−4.0%

gap 0.15Vol 285K

Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jan 1

↳ “Bitcoin holds near $65,000 as $800 billion AI selloff leaves crypto largely untouched” — coindesk.com · 12h ago (0.84)

11%+2.0%

gap 0.12Vol 2.7M

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 24?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 24

↳ “Bitcoin holds near $65,000 as $800 billion AI selloff leaves crypto largely untouched” — coindesk.com · 12h ago (0.98)

0%+0.1%

gap 0.12Vol 174K

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

Polymarket · politics · closes Jul 24

↳ “SpaceX Pushes Starship Flight 13 to July 24 for Heat-Shield Imaging Conditions” — SpaceX · 2d ago (0.76)

3%−0.8%

gap 0.07Vol 902K

Israel closes its airspace by July 24?

Polymarket · politics · closes Jul 30

↳ “SpaceX Pushes Starship Flight 13 to July 24 for Heat-Shield Imaging Conditions” — SpaceX · 2d ago (0.76)

9%−5.0%

gap 0.07Vol 568K

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Polymarket · culture · closes Jul 31

↳ “Alphabet is falling on a big spending forecast increase. What analysts are saying” — cnbc.com · 1d ago (0.93)
↳ “Tesla and Alphabet shares slump in premarket trading as AI spending concerns spook investors” — cnbc.com · 1d ago (0.96)
↳ “Why we're sticking with Alphabet despite an imperfect quarter and more AI spending” — Why we're sticking with Alphabet despite an imperfect quarter and more AI spending · 2d ago (0.78)

0%−0.1%

gap 0.07Vol 640K

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?

Polymarket · politics · closes Aug 31

↳ “SpaceX Pushes Starship Flight 13 to July 24 for Heat-Shield Imaging Conditions” — SpaceX · 2d ago (0.76)

3%−4.0%

gap 0.07Vol 374K

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

Kalshi · politics · closes Dec 31

↳ “‘We expect it to leak so we’re just announcing it’: OpenAI files confidential SEC paperwork for IPO - Fortune” — fortune.com · 1d ago (0.99)
↳ “OpenAI confidentially files for IPO with SEC, 2026 - qz.com” — qz.com · 1d ago (0.99)
↳ “OpenAI files confidential SEC paperwork for IPO, opening the door to a Wall Street debut - AP News” — apnews.com · 4d ago (0.98)

19%+1.0%

gap 0.06Vol 147K

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Manifold · macro · closes Jan 20play-money

↳ “Trump's new global tariff draws rebukes from trade partners over forced-labor justification” — cnbc.com · 14h ago (0.72)

43%0.0%

gap 0.11Vol 292K

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Aug 1

↳ “Live markets: Bitcoin trades above $65,000 as Alphabet's bigger AI bill props up the chip trade” — coindesk.com · 1d ago (0.94)
↳ “Bitcoin wilts as oil and rates rise. Clarity Act odds tumble to 38%” — coindesk.com · 2d ago (0.88)
↳ “Live updates: Bitcoin under $66,000 as traders await Alphabet earnings to gauge AI trade” — coindesk.com · 2d ago (0.97)

3%0.0%

gap 0.04Vol 1.1M

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 23?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 23

↳ “Live markets: Bitcoin trades above $65,000 as Alphabet's bigger AI bill props up the chip trade” — coindesk.com · 1d ago (0.97)

0%0.0%

gap 0.04Vol 129K

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 23?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 23

↳ “Live markets: Bitcoin trades above $65,000 as Alphabet's bigger AI bill props up the chip trade” — coindesk.com · 1d ago (0.99)

100%0.0%

gap 0.04Vol 90K

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 23?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 23

↳ “Live markets: Bitcoin trades above $65,000 as Alphabet's bigger AI bill props up the chip trade” — coindesk.com · 1d ago (0.99)

100%+0.3%

gap 0.04Vol 345K

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 24?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 24

↳ “Live markets: Bitcoin trades above $65,000 as Alphabet's bigger AI bill props up the chip trade” — coindesk.com · 1d ago (0.99)

100%0.0%

gap 0.04Vol 69K

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 23?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 23

↳ “Live markets: Bitcoin trades above $65,000 as Alphabet's bigger AI bill props up the chip trade” — coindesk.com · 1d ago (0.92)

0%−1.1%

gap 0.04Vol 415K

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 23?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 23

↳ “Live markets: Bitcoin trades above $65,000 as Alphabet's bigger AI bill props up the chip trade” — coindesk.com · 1d ago (0.99)

100%+2.9%

gap 0.04Vol 296K

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Aug 1

↳ “Bitcoin wilts as oil and rates rise. Clarity Act odds tumble to 38%” — coindesk.com · 2d ago (0.82)
↳ “Live updates: Bitcoin under $66,000 as traders await Alphabet earnings to gauge AI trade” — coindesk.com · 2d ago (0.88)
↳ “Bitcoin retreats from one-month high as oil tops $85, inflation concerns resurface” — coindesk.com · 2d ago (0.78)

1%0.0%

gap 0.03Vol 560K

Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Aug 1

↳ “Bitcoin wilts as oil and rates rise. Clarity Act odds tumble to 38%” — coindesk.com · 2d ago (0.86)
↳ “Bitcoin retreats from one-month high as oil tops $85, inflation concerns resurface” — coindesk.com · 2d ago (0.88)
↳ “Bitcoin holds near $66,300 as chips extend their rally and the yen hits a 40-year low” — coindesk.com · 3d ago (0.90)

0%−0.8%

gap 0.03Vol 799K

Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Aug 1

↳ “Bitcoin wilts as oil and rates rise. Clarity Act odds tumble to 38%” — coindesk.com · 2d ago (0.86)
↳ “Bitcoin Is Bouncing: Here’s the Bull and Bear Case for Its Next Move” — decrypt.co · 2d ago (0.72)
↳ “Bitcoin retreats from one-month high as oil tops $85, inflation concerns resurface” — coindesk.com · 2d ago (0.82)

5%−4.7%

gap 0.02Vol 1.1M

Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Aug 1

↳ “Bitcoin retreats from one-month high as oil tops $85, inflation concerns resurface” — coindesk.com · 2d ago (0.78)
↳ “Bitcoin holds near $66,300 as chips extend their rally and the yen hits a 40-year low” — coindesk.com · 3d ago (0.84)
↳ “Bitcoin rally faces key test at $68,000 as 'summer slumber' grips crypto, analysts say” — coindesk.com · 3d ago (0.76)

3%0.0%

gap 0.01Vol 1.0M

Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Aug 1

↳ “Bitcoin wilts as oil and rates rise. Clarity Act odds tumble to 38%” — coindesk.com · 2d ago (0.84)
↳ “Bitcoin Is Bouncing: Here’s the Bull and Bear Case for Its Next Move” — decrypt.co · 2d ago (0.74)
↳ “Bitcoin holds near $66,300 as chips extend their rally and the yen hits a 40-year low” — coindesk.com · 3d ago (0.97)

50%−16.0%

gap 0.01Vol 1.9M

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 22?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 22

↳ “Live updates: Bitcoin under $66,000 as traders await Alphabet earnings to gauge AI trade” — coindesk.com · 2d ago (0.99)

0%0.0%

gap 0.01Vol 142K

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 22?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 22

↳ “Live updates: Bitcoin under $66,000 as traders await Alphabet earnings to gauge AI trade” — coindesk.com · 2d ago (0.99)

100%0.0%

gap 0.01Vol 489K

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Polymarket · politics · closes Jul 31

↳ “Brent oil jumps 2% to hold above $92 as Rubio says Iran 'not serious' about peace talks” — cnbc.com · 2d ago (0.72)
↳ “U.S. hits Iran for ninth consecutive night as American casualties mount” — cnbc.com · 5d ago (0.78)

9%−1.0%

gap 0.01Vol 2.8M

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 22?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 22

↳ “Live updates: Bitcoin under $66,000 as traders await Alphabet earnings to gauge AI trade” — coindesk.com · 2d ago (0.99)

0%0.0%

gap 0.01Vol 359K

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 22?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 22

↳ “Live updates: Bitcoin under $66,000 as traders await Alphabet earnings to gauge AI trade” — coindesk.com · 2d ago (0.94)

100%0.0%

gap 0.01Vol 360K

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?

Polymarket · politics · closes Jul 22

↳ “Brent oil jumps 2% to hold above $92 as Rubio says Iran 'not serious' about peace talks” — cnbc.com · 2d ago (0.86)
↳ “U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire” — cnbc.com · 3d ago (0.82)

100%+0.1%

gap 0.01Vol 881K

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

Polymarket · politics · closes Jul 31

↳ “Brent oil jumps 2% to hold above $92 as Rubio says Iran 'not serious' about peace talks” — cnbc.com · 2d ago (0.84)
↳ “U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire” — cnbc.com · 3d ago (0.76)

56%−3.0%

gap 0.00Vol 605K

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 21?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 21

↳ “Bitcoin rally has broad-based support as institutions, whales, options traders pile in” — coindesk.com · 3d ago (0.94)

100%0.0%

gap 0.00Vol 240K

Iran full airspace closure by July 21?

Polymarket · politics · closes Jul 21

↳ “U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire” — cnbc.com · 3d ago (0.74)
↳ “U.S. hits Iran for ninth consecutive night as American casualties mount” — cnbc.com · 5d ago (0.78)

7%0.0%

gap 0.00Vol 104K

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Aug 1

↳ “Bitcoin hits a two-week high near $65,500 as the chip trade turns back into a tailwind” — coindesk.com · 4d ago (0.84)
↳ “Bitcoin flat near $64,000 as oil hits a one-month high and Kimi AI selloff lingers” — coindesk.com · 5d ago (0.87)

28%0.0%

gap 0.00Vol 377K

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Polymarket · politics · closes Jul 30

↳ “Ships shun Strait of Hormuz as renewed fighting strains key oil corridor” — cnbc.com · 4d ago (0.98)
↳ “Oil tankers face 'worst case scenario' in Hormuz as Iran steps up attacks on ships, maritime risk CEO says” — cnbc.com · 7d ago (0.98)

1%−0.3%

gap 0.00Vol 20.1M

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Polymarket · economics · closes Jul 31

↳ “Nvidia details its next-generation Vera CPU for AI, setting up challenge to AMD and Intel” — cnbc.com · 3d ago (0.72)

86%−0.5%

gap 0.00Vol 1.8M

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Polymarket · politics · closes Aug 30

↳ “Ships shun Strait of Hormuz as renewed fighting strains key oil corridor” — cnbc.com · 4d ago (0.97)

12%−2.0%

gap 0.00Vol 2.0M

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Polymarket · politics · closes Dec 30

↳ “Ships shun Strait of Hormuz as renewed fighting strains key oil corridor” — cnbc.com · 4d ago (0.98)

52%+1.0%

gap 0.00Vol 5.8M

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Polymarket · culture · closes Jul 30

↳ “Ted Lasso Season 4 In The Daily LITG 20th July 2026” — bleedingcool.com · 4d ago (0.78)
↳ “Chinese startup Moonshot releases 2.8 trillion-parameter AI model claiming parity with top US systems - eciks.org” — Chinese startup Moonshot releases 2.8 trillion-parameter AI model claiming parity with top US systems - eciks.org · 5d ago (0.80)
↳ “Reacher Spinoff Neagley Gets A Poster in The Daily LITG 19th July 2026” — bleedingcool.com · 5d ago (0.77)

0%0.0%

gap 0.00Vol 515K

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 20?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 20

↳ “Bitcoin flat near $64,000 as oil hits a one-month high and Kimi AI selloff lingers” — coindesk.com · 5d ago (0.99)

0%0.0%

gap 0.00Vol 222K

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 20?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 20

↳ “Bitcoin flat near $64,000 as oil hits a one-month high and Kimi AI selloff lingers” — coindesk.com · 5d ago (0.99)

100%0.0%

gap 0.00Vol 250K

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 20?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 20

↳ “Bitcoin flat near $64,000 as oil hits a one-month high and Kimi AI selloff lingers” — coindesk.com · 5d ago (0.98)

0%0.0%

gap 0.00Vol 356K

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 20?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 20

↳ “Bitcoin flat near $64,000 as oil hits a one-month high and Kimi AI selloff lingers” — coindesk.com · 5d ago (0.97)

0%0.0%

gap 0.00Vol 339K

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?

Polymarket · politics · closes Jul 24

↳ “U.S. hits Iran for ninth consecutive night as American casualties mount” — cnbc.com · 5d ago (0.72)

10%0.0%

gap 0.00Vol 429K

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Polymarket · sports · closes Jul 19

↳ “Spain wins the World Cup by beating Argentina 1-0 on Ferran Torres' goal in extra time” — cnbc.com · 5d ago (1.00)
↳ “Where to Watch Spain vs. Argentina in the 2026 World Cup Final Online” — hollywoodreporter.com · 5d ago (0.95)

0%0.0%

gap 0.00Vol 174.3M

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Polymarket · sports · closes Jul 19

↳ “Spain Wins The 2026 World Cup 1-0, Punishing Argentina With 20 Shots On Goal” — deadline.com · 5d ago (1.00)
↳ “Spain wins the World Cup by beating Argentina 1-0 on Ferran Torres' goal in extra time” — cnbc.com · 5d ago (0.99)
↳ “FIFA World Cup Final 2026 Livestream: Here s Where to Watch the Spain vs. Argentina Online” — variety.com · 5d ago (0.99)

100%0.0%

gap 0.00Vol 151.9M

Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Polymarket · sports · closes Aug 2

↳ “Spain wins the World Cup by beating Argentina 1-0 on Ferran Torres' goal in extra time” — cnbc.com · 5d ago (0.90)

0%0.0%

gap 0.00Vol 280K

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees

Polymarket · sports · closes Jul 25

↳ “Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees: Here s How to Watch the MLB Game Live Online” — variety.com · 5d ago (0.72)

100%0.0%

gap 0.00Vol 527K

Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?

Polymarket · sports · closes Oct 30

↳ “LeBron James joining Philadelphia 76ers for record-extending 24th NBA season” — cnbc.com · 40m ago (0.95)
↳ “LeBron James Heads to Philadelphia 76ers” — variety.com · 1h ago (0.98)
↳ “LeBron James Signs With Philadelphia 76ers As Last Decision : I Am So Excited To Energize A New Fan Base” — deadline.com · 40m ago (0.92)

8%−1.0%

gap 0.00Vol 2.3M

Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 21?

Polymarket · crypto · closes Jul 22

↳ “Bitcoin rally faces key test at $68,000 as 'summer slumber' grips crypto, analysts say” — coindesk.com · 3d ago (0.89)

0%0.0%

gap 0.00Vol 148K