How Priced In works

What the feed shows

The home feed is a ranked list of market contracts — real questions with a live probability, like whether a rate cut lands or an election breaks a certain way. Each row shows the current odds, how far they have moved over the window you pick (today, yesterday, or the last seven days), a small chart of the recent path, and any news we have linked to the move.

The default view splits the movers into two columns — contracts rising and contracts falling — so the two directions read as a clean mirror rather than one blended list. Green and red are used for one thing only: the direction of a move. Everything else stays monochrome so the numbers do the talking.

The priced-in gap

A market is “priced in” when the price has already absorbed the news. The gap lens looks for the opposite: loud news sitting on top of a market that has barely moved. Intuitively, the gap is largest when a strong, recent story lands on a contract whose odds are still roughly where they were — and it collapses toward zero as the market catches up and the price swings to meet the story.

Two things drive it. The first is how loud and how fresh the news is: a major, very recent story counts for more, and its weight fades as it ages. The second is how much the market has already moved: the bigger the swing, the more the news is considered priced in, and the smaller the gap. A quiet news day leaves the gap near zero — a market moving on its own, with no story behind it, is the job of the movers view, not this one.

Switch to the gap lens and the same markets re-sort by that measure, loudest unpriced story first. It is a lens for reading what the market may not have finished digesting — not advice, and never a trade.

Where the data comes from

Prices come from 5 prediction-market platforms — Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, Limitless, and Manifold. Priced In reads each of them every 5 minutes and records every price it sees into an append-only history: nothing is overwritten, so the chart on any contract is the real path the odds took, and a change in how we rank can be re-run over the same recorded past.

News is consumed over a read-only boundary from a separate newsroom system and matched to the contracts it bears on. When a story is confidently linked to a market it appears on that market’s row and detail page, attributed to its source with the time it broke and a match confidence — so every claim in the feed is traceable back to where it came from.

Real money and play money

Some of the venues we track trade with real money; some are play-money markets where people wager points rather than cash. Play-money markets are useful — they cover an enormous range of questions — but a point-wager carries a weaker signal than a real-money one. So play-money markets are labeled everywhere they appear, and they count for less when the feed is ranked, so breadth alone can’t push them to the top. One platform is mixed, carrying both kinds, and there each contract is labeled on its own. The platforms page lists exactly which is which.

Resolutions

Markets end. When a contract closes and settles to an outcome, Priced In records that it resolved and how — the questions don’t just vanish from history when they’re decided. That keeps the record honest and leaves room to look back at how the odds, and the news, tracked the truth.