How Priced In works

What the feed shows

The home page opens on the Briefing: an editorially legible desk for real market questions, their current odds, linked news, and useful calendar or catalog context. Its sections stay independent instead of pretending that every useful signal can be reduced to one score.

Briefing includes reactions observed after qualified linked signals, open gaps, large moves without a displayed linked signal, markets closing soon, and newly tracked markets. The Moves view keeps the raw probability deltas, split into rising and falling contracts. Gaps is the focused lens for qualified news a market may still be absorbing. Explore currently offers only closing-soon and newly-tracked lists; broader filters and analytics are not implied. Green and red are reserved for a probability direction.

The priced-in gap

The gap lens looks for qualified, strong news associated with a contract whose price has changed little after the signal. Intuitively, the gap is largest when a strong, recent signal is linked to a contract whose odds remain near the anchor observation. It approaches zero as the observed movement accounts for more of the signal.

Two things drive it. The first is how loud and how fresh the linked news is: a major, very recent story counts for more, and its weight fades as it ages. The second is how much movement and direction-aware headroom remain. A Yes-supporting signal has less open headroom when the contract is already near 100%; a No-supporting signal has less when it is already near 0%. Movement consistent with the signal reduces the gap. A quiet news day leaves the gap near zero — a market move with no qualified linked story is the job of the Moves view, not this one.

Switch to Gaps and the same markets re-sort by that measure. It is a lens for reading what the market may not have finished digesting — not advice, and never a trade.

Where the data comes from

Prices come from 5 prediction-market platforms — Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, Limitless, and Manifold. Priced In reads each of them every 5 minutes and records every price it sees into an append-only history: nothing is overwritten, so the chart on any contract is the real path the odds took, and a change in how we rank can be re-run over the same recorded past.

News is consumed over a read-only boundary from a separate newsroom system and matched to the contracts it bears on. When a story passes the display qualification threshold it appears on the relevant market surface with its source and time, so the association is traceable without claiming that the story caused the market move.

Real money and play money

Some of the venues we track trade with real money; some are play-money markets where people wager points rather than cash. Play-money markets are useful — they cover an enormous range of questions — but a point-wager carries a weaker signal than a real-money one. So play-money markets are labeled everywhere they appear, and they count for less when the feed is ranked, so breadth alone can’t push them to the top. One platform is mixed, carrying both kinds, and there each contract is labeled on its own. The platforms page lists exactly which is which.

Resolutions

Markets end. When a contract closes and settles to an outcome, Priced In records that it resolved and how — the questions don’t just vanish from history when they’re decided. That keeps the record honest and leaves room to look back at how the odds, and the news, tracked the truth.